DONALD Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, has drawn up a list of potential disasters awaiting British and American forces if the expected invasion of Iraq goes wrong, it emerged yesterday. The five-page dossier warns that Saddam Hussein may use chemical and biological weapons against attacking troops - or turn them on his own people and blame it on the United States(White House)...

FOREIGN STAFF

DONALD Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, has drawn up a list of potential disasters awaiting British and American forces if the expected invasion of Iraq goes wrong, it emerged yesterday.

The five-page dossier warns that Saddam Hussein may use chemical and biological weapons against attacking troops - or turn them on his own people and blame it on the United States.

He may repeat his strategy from the Gulf war and blow up oilfields, which the US plans to use to fund post-war rebuilding efforts in Iraq.

Saddam could also hide his weapons of mass destruction in mosques, hospitals or cultural sites, and use ordinary Iraqis or captured foreign journalists as human shields.

Mr Rumsfeld’s greatest fear is of a conflict stretching on for several months, or even years, which would lead to increased casualties and drain resources for fighting terrorism elsewhere. "The risks run the gamut from concerns about some of the neighbouring states being attacked, concerns about the use of weapons of mass destruction against those states or against our forces in or out of Iraq," he told the New York Times.

Mr Rumsfeld is said to keep the list in his desk drawer and constantly updates it with suggestions from senior military commanders and George Bush, the US president.

A senior White House official said the document showed that many uncertainties remained even after months of studies and advance planning for an attack. "We still do not know how US forces will be received. Will it be cheers, jeers or shots? And the fact is, we won’t know until we get there."

A major problem is expected to be stabilising and rebuilding the country after an invasion.

Occupying forces will have to prevent a collapse in order amid expected attempts at score-settling among bitter political and religious rivalries that have been bottled up for years under Saddam’s rule.

Meanwhile, inspectors will have to hunt down suspected weapons stores before the enemy can get its hands on them. "There is a lot to keep us awake at night," one senior administration official told the New York Times.

The newspaper also speculated that the release of information about the document was an attempt by the administration to prepare the US people for a war that could result in more casualties and complications than they currently think.

The paper quoted a presidential aide as saying that Mr Bush has to prepare the country for "the very real possibility that this will not look like Afghanistan".

While the attack on Afghanistan was swift, the situation in Iraq - particularly the aftermath of the war and nation building - could be a long and bloody affair.

Some experts have said that it could take as many as three years to rebuild the country, with threats of ethnic and religious rivalry putting US troops under threat.

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